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Mesoscale Discussion 1983
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MISSSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...WESTERN
   ALABAMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231339Z - 231615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...THIS MORNING. THE
   ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY IMPLIES THAT THE LEADING EDGE
   OF STRONGER DCVA PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE SRN
   PLAINS IS ENCROACHING UPON THE WRN EXTENT OF INLAND-EXTENDING GULF
   MOISTURE -- E.G. MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS SRN LA/MS.
   SMALL...SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY CORES ARE NOW BEING DETECTED FROM
   E-CNTRL TX TO SWRN LA. THIS IS EVIDENCE OF THE INTERACTION OF
   STRONGER ASCENT OVERTAKING THE WRN FRINGES OF NON-ZERO
   BUOYANCY...WITH SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS EXISTING E OF A
   SFC TROUGH ANALYZED FROM N-CNTRL AL TO VICKSBURG MS TO NEAR BEAUMONT
   TX. E OF THIS TROUGH...LIX/LCH RAOBS AT 12Z SAMPLE AROUND 1250 J/KG
   OF MLCAPE AIDED BY MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INLAND
   PENETRATION OF HIGHER-BUOYANCY/THETA-E AIR WILL BE FACILITATED BY
   STRENGTHENING POLEWARD MASS FLUXES PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...WITH RELATED ASCENT RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTION
   NEAR/E OF THE SFC TROUGH THIS MORNING.

   WITH AREA VWPS SAMPLING 50-60 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR...MIXED-MODE
   CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/QLCS SEGMENTS SHOULD ENSUE...WITH
   DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. ELONGATING/CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE
   DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING ACROSS SRN LA/SRN MS WHICH WILL BE IN
   CONTACT WITH RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ULTIMATELY...UNCERTAINTY IN
   THE TIMING OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL
   EXTENDS TO WW ISSUANCE TIMING. BY MID DAY...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE
   REQUIRED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 12/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29539315 30149325 31259233 33298982 33548807 32828761
               31218842 29398929 29059079 29329253 29539315 

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Page last modified: December 23, 2014
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