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Mesoscale Discussion 1984
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231340Z - 231545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION AND FL PANHANDLE
   VICINITY MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
   UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT S CENTRAL/SERN U.S.
   ATTM...WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
   OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING WHICH CONTINUES TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY REGION.  THE INLAND BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS GA
   AND ERN AL SHOULD REMAIN COOL/STABLE -- REINFORCED BY A COLD AIR
   DAMMING REGIME E/SE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER S AND W -- I.E. INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN
   GULF COASTAL REGION -- WILL CONTINUE...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
   DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR FURTHER INCREASES IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

   AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS...MIXED STORM MODES/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
   SHOULD PREVAIL.  WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
   ROTATION ACROSS A BROAD AREA...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES -- WILL EXIST
   WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 12/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31198825 32348733 31138475 29958407 29138494 29268653
               29828861 31198825 

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Page last modified: December 23, 2014
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