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Mesoscale Discussion 1985
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 560...

   VALID 231733Z - 231900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 560 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW.

   DISCUSSION...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SERN LA INTO EXTREME SWRN
   MS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S. 
   RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING SLIGHTLY AND THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MORE INSTABILITY WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  WHILE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION HAS
   ORIENTED ITSELF ALONG WARM FRONTAL CORRIDOR THAT HAS ADVANCED
   INLAND...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION MAY
   GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ALONG/AHEAD COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   DISCRETE STRUCTURES BUT AN UPWARD EVOLVING LINEAR MCS COULD
   ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT.  TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
   GREATEST WITH SUPERCELLS ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT.

   ..DARROW.. 12/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31569373 32998782 30098784 28679371 31569373 

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Page last modified: December 23, 2014
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