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Mesoscale Discussion 1986
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231812Z - 232015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
   MAY POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES
   AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...INCREASING WAA ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL
   FORCING FROM A LINE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING S OFFSHORE THE FL
   PANHANDLE...HAS LED TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STRONG
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST KEVX DATA INDICATE A FEW OF THESE
   CELLS ARE ACQUIRING LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION /I.E. CELLS SSW OF PANAMA
   CITY/...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH
   AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50
   KT. HOWEVER...ONCE THESE CELLS MOVE ONSHORE...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY LOWER DEW
   POINTS AND DECREASING MUCAPE /E.G. LESS THAN 500 J PER KG/ ACROSS
   THE AREA. WHILE EFFECTIVE SRH DECREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT...LATEST
   GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ADVECTION OF HIGHER
   THETA-E AIR FROM OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 12/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29668517 30328606 30928608 30898512 30608363 30168339
               29888359 30098421 29668482 29668517 

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Page last modified: December 23, 2014
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