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Mesoscale Discussion 1987
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN-CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 232006Z - 232200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO AN
   EWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ /
   WAA ALOFT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREAKS IN CLOUD
   COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF COAST...HAVE RESULTED IN IMPROVED
   INSOLATION AND INCREASING BUOYANCY. WHILE MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL
   MEAGER /AROUND 250-500 J PER KG/...NEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E
   VALUES AND 1-2 MORE HOURS OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1000 J PER KG. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRENGTHENING
   BACKGROUND FLOW FIELD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 50-60 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. IN
   COMBINATION WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE SRH AND A MOIST BL
   CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS UPWARDS OF 13-14 G/KG...A
   MIXTURE OF CONVECTIVE MODES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD DOWNSTREAM OF WW560. AS
   SUCH...ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 12/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29928587 30058698 30098841 32648819 33218814 33698796
               33618647 33058555 31788510 30488542 29928587 

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Page last modified: December 23, 2014
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