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Mesoscale Discussion 1991
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST FL AND
   SOUTHWEST GA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 561...

   VALID 240422Z - 240515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 561 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO 05Z FOR
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHWEST
   GA.  A LINE OF STORMS WILL TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS
   REGION...PRODUCING A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
   THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.

   DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS
   EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KATL SWWD THROUGH FAR SERN AL TO THE WRN
   FL PANHANDLE.  LIGHTNING PRODUCTION HAS INCREASED ALONG THE PORTION
   OF THIS LINE IN SERN AL WHERE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED COOLING
   CLOUD TOPS.  DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NERN
   GULF INTO THE SERN STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH 12Z...WITH A 50-60 KT SSWLY LLJ
   TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
   TO ADVANCE POLEWARD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S
   SPREADING INTO SRN GA...WITH VALUES AROUND 70 F ALONG THE NERN GULF
   COAST.  RECENT TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED ONGOING
   DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE MUCAPE INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AT
   04Z.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA AND THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...PARCELS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NEAR-SURFACE TO SURFACE-BASED FROM SOUTH TO
   NORTH ENHANCING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE
   STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE ONGOING LINE OF
   STORMS THAT WOULD ALSO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 12/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29688692 30538619 31378511 32048460 32098422 32018366
               31908301 31388270 30558279 29908290 29328307 29118346
               28928425 29688692 

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Page last modified: December 24, 2014
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