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Mesoscale Discussion 1992
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...RISK FOR FL PANHANDLE/SWRN AND S CENTRAL GA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 562...

   VALID 240810Z - 241015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 562 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO OR TWO
   CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE/N FL AND ADJACENT SWRN
   AND S CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS AM.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
   EWD ACROSS ERN MS ATTM...WITH A COOL CONTINENTAL WEDGE AIRMASS
   REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF GA AND ERN AL -- BEING
   REINFORCED BY ONGOING/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA.  E OF
   THE COLD FRONT AND S OF THE WEDGE FRONT -- I.E. ACROSS SRN GA AND
   FL...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS EVIDENT...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
   70S DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK /AOB 500 J/KG/ BUT SUFFICIENT
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS.

   THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM THE CENTRAL FL
   PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SWRN GA...WHERE FAVORABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IS INDICATED PER AREA VWPS.  THIS HAS
   SUPPORTED NUMEROUS -- BUT RELATIVELY WEAK/TRANSIENT -- LOW-LEVEL
   CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONE
   RELATIVELY STRONGER COUPLET NOW OVER SRN EARLY COUNTY GA APPROACHING
   NWRN MILLER CO ATTM.

   EXPECT A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE BACKGROUND SITUATION TO PERSIST --
   I.E. WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION WITHIN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.  POTENTIAL REMAINS
   FOR BRIEF ENHANCEMENTS TO THE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION OF ANY CELL...WHICH
   COULD ALLOW QUICK SPIN-UP OF A TORNADO OR TWO AT ANY TIME ACROSS THE
   WW AREA.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 12/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29808660 30288650 30868589 31778446 32288362 32468251
               32068238 31208243 29568292 29068345 29168537 29808660 

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Page last modified: December 24, 2014
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