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Mesoscale Discussion 1995
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC/NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241542Z - 241645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONE OR TWO TORNADOES MAY EVOLVE WITHIN STRONGER SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINA REGION INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...LONG-LOOP RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS REMNANT MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION HAS MIGRATED ACROSS WRN NC/VA INTO THE NRN CHESAPEAKE
   BAY REGION.  AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF LIGHTNING-FREE
   CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING SWD TO
   NEAR ILM WHERE DEEP CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING IS NOTED.  IT APPEARS
   SRN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
   UPWARD GROWTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE SFC DEW
   POINTS ARE NOW RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 60S.  STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTS
   DEEP ROTATION AS EVIDENT BY EVOLVING SUPERCELLS OVER BRUNSWICK
   COUNTY NC.  THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   COULD EVOLVE WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AS TAIL END OF STRONGER
   FORCING/CONVERGENCE TRANSLATE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS REGION.

   ..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 12/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33588004 35867779 35817598 34747614 33097793 33588004 

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Page last modified: December 24, 2014
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