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Mesoscale Discussion 1996
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KY...WRN WV...AND SRN/CNTRL OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242021Z - 242215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT DEVELOPS EAST
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...PER 19Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS...HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF
   THE APPROACHING HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ARE LENDING BROAD SUPPORT FOR
   ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS
   INDICATES A CENTER OF LOW PRES NEAR FDY...WITH A LOW-TOPPED BROKEN
   SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING FARTHER TO ITS SOUTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. AS
   OF 1915Z...THESE CELLS WERE GENERALLY ON A HAO-LEX-SME LINE...WITH
   PRES FALLS OF 2-4 MB PER 2 HR ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE LINE.

   CURRENTLY...BUOYANCY IS MEAGER WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
   100-250 J/KG. THIS IS EVIDENT PER THE OVERALL LACK OF OBSERVED
   LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS DUAL-POLARIZATION DATA INDICATIVE OF A
   RELATIVE LACK OF MIXED-PHASE REGION ABOVE THE MELTING LAYER IN THE
   STRONGER CELLS OF THE LINE. NONETHELESS...A FEW POCKETS OF STRONGER
   INSOLATION DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH THE STRONG SUPPORT FOR ASCENT TO AID IN SOME INCREASE IN DEEPER
   CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...INCREASING BACKGROUND FLOW WILL PROVIDE
   AMPLE MOMENTUM FOR TRANSFER TO THE SFC IN ANY STRONGER CELLS. 1950Z
   VWP DATA FROM LOCAL WSR-88DS INDICATE AROUND 50 KTS OF SSW FLOW
   AROUND 1 KM AGL. INDEED...KSME REPORTED A GUST TO 53 KTS WITH THE
   PASSAGE OF THE LINE AT 1915Z. THEREFORE...WHILE CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW...MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE STRONG
   WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AS THIS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 12/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...

   LAT...LON   37708327 38618383 39678399 40528385 40928347 41458263
               41588131 41328070 40108072 39198065 38568077 37408195
               37138258 37708327 

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Page last modified: December 24, 2014
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