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Mesoscale Discussion 1998
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271935Z - 272130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON FROM SERN TX INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL LA. 
   GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A BRIEF
   TORNADO...AND HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH DIAMETER.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 1915Z...AND SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE STORM WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY TO BE
   SURFACE-BASED WAS LOCATED IN NRN LIBERTY/POLK COUNTIES TX MOVING
   ENEWD INTO HARDIN/TYLER COUNTIES.  RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   /THROUGH 19Z/ SHOWED THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO MOVE INLAND
   ACROSS FAR SERN TX AND THE SRN 1-2 TIERS OF LA PARISHES.  THE
   AFOREMENTIONED LIBERTY/POLK COUNTIES STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
   TRIPLE POINT...AND CURRENT TRACK OF THIS STORM SUGGESTS IT WILL TEND
   TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE POLEWARD MOVING WARM
   SECTOR.  GIVEN SURFACE WINDS ARE MORE BACKED IN THAT ZONE...
   ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND DEEP LAYER WINDS/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
   TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION...THERE EXISTS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FOR A
   SEVERE STORM TO OCCUR.  THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 12/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30679464 31049454 31359344 31479216 31259180 30699180
               30339233 30289323 30269386 30279452 30679464 

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Page last modified: December 27, 2014
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