MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AL...GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 021947Z - 022145Z
   
   MULTICELLULAR STORMS POSING A THREAT OF ISOLATED SMALL/MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD
   ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AL AND NRN GA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   GENERALLY ISOLATED/RANDOM NATURE OF THIS WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
   SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH.
   
   STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE WIND SHIFT SPREADING
   SWD INTO VERY HOT/UNSTABLE REGIME ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS. MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000
   J/KG...BUT SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUGGEST THAT STORMS
   WILL BRIEFLY ATTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS BEFORE COLLAPSING. ALONG WITH
   THESE CHARACTERISTICS BEING OBSERVED ON AREAS RADARS...A FEW CELL
   MERGERS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE.
   
   DESPITE 25-30KT NLY FLOW ALOFT...OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT
   CURRENTLY APPEAR TO SUPPORT GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE.
   IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WIND REGIME MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   CHANGING/GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
   THE NE U.S. IF THIS DOES INDEED RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD GREATER
   STORM ORGANIZATION...THE NEED FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE
   REEVALUATED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/02/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34458770 34918594 34908484 34898351 34238354 33608492
   33578716 33868773