MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO...EXTREME NWRN KS...SWRN THROUGH
   N-CENTRAL NEB...S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN SD...SERN ND...EXTREME
   W-CENTRAL MN.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 737...
   
   VALID 090010Z - 090215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 737
   CONTINUES.
   
   PRIMARY/BKN BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES INVOF SFC COLD FRONT FROM
   NEAR ABR-VTN TO GARDEN COUNTY NEB AS OF 2345Z...THEN SEPARATING FROM
   FRONT SWD AND SWWD ACROSS NERN CO...NEAR AKO-APA LINE.  ACTIVITY
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS WW
   AND ESEWD ELSEWHERE...WITH STG-SVR GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. 
   PREDOMINANT MODE SHOULD REMAIN LINEAR GIVEN CHARACTER OF FORCED
   ASCENT ALONG FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEARLY PARALLEL
   ALIGNMENT OF MEAN WIND VECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR.  ACTIVITY
   WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IN
   INCREASING PROXIMITY TO SFC MOIST AXES NEAR WRN MN BORDER AND OVER
   CENTRAL NEB.  HOWEVER...OFFSETTING FACTOR FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
   WILL BE DIABATIC COOLING AND INCREASING MLCINH...ESPECIALLY AFTER
   ABOUT 03Z.  
   
   MRGL SVR POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND N OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS ERN ND. 
   PRIMARILY THIS WOULD TAKE FORM OF HAIL INSTEAD OF WIND...GIVEN
   POSTFRONTAL NATURE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AND PRESENCE OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER CAA BENEATH.  SAME APPLIES TO POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING WITHIN WW ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN SD...AND CARE SHOULD BE
   TAKEN CLEARING WW BEHIND MAIN/FRONTAL BAND PENDING TRENDS WITH
   POSTFRONTAL ACTIVITY.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACTUALLY APPEARS STRONGER
   BEHIND FRONT THAN ALONG/AHEAD OF IT...GIVEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT AND GEOMETRY OF KINEMATIC PROFILE ABOVE STABLE/FRONTAL LAYER. 
   HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...
   UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   39900381 40340284 40820264 41360304 41690371 42050232
               44159997 45659904 47189881 47369722 46019658 46029629
               45459625 45439608 45199611 45259642 44499651 44519710
               44169716 44199741 43789743 43819758 43479765 43469808
               42829810 42909838 42069835 42059914 41059922 41030020
               40670026 40669996 40409991 40430010 40310006 40330107
               39770176 39900381