MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 141608Z - 141815Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF UT. A
   CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1
   CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
   
   SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEARING THE CA/NV
   BORDER VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER NV
   TODAY...WITH AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPPER JET EXIT
   REGION EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE ACROSS UT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES AS MUCH AS
   0.75-0.85 INCHES...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND AMPLE HEATING
   ACROSS MUCH OF UT WILL YIELD MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. MODERATELY
   STRONG...BUT BACKING...MID LEVEL FLOW AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENDENCY FOR QUASI-ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/LINES...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF
   SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. PORTIONS OF UT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
   CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK...ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH LATER TODAY
   IS STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/14/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SLC...
   
   LAT...LON   40551386 41191255 39911103 37721067 37321185 37611364
               40551386