MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AR/EXTREME NORTHEAST TX/NORTHERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 152004Z - 152230Z
   
   THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES OF 1+ IN/HR
   POSSIBLE...MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AR/EXTREME
   NORTHEAST TX/NORTHERN LA INTO THE EVENING.
   
   NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
   ARKLATEX...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
   AR/LA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS TRENDS IMPLY A MODEST
   INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AR VIA AN INVERTED
   TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS ON THE IMMEDIATE NNW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
   AS A VERY MOIST INFLUX CONTINUES INTO THE REGION...WITH GPS DERIVED
   PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A QUASI-FOCUSED
   AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL/ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING MAY
   MATERIALIZE ACROSS WESTERN AR/FAR NORTHERN LA/EXTREME NORTHEAST TX
   IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/15/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   35959340 36029276 35069238 32669290 33089433 34739436
               35959340