MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 152314Z - 160045Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTMS WHICH INITIATED EARLIER ALONG THE RATON MESA HAVE RECENTLY
   INTENSIFIED OVER SERN COLFAX COUNTY WITH ADDITION STORM DEVELOPMENT
   OCCURRING OVER WRN HARDING COUNTY AS OF 23Z.  RUC PROXIMITY
   SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
   OVERLY MOIST /LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 8-8.5 G PER KG/. 
   HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT FEATURES STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WHICH WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WHILE
   DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KT /PER TCC
   PROFILER/...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SERVE TO
   MAINTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
   03-04Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/15/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   34580489 35740525 36640512 36760462 36720369 35900324
               34990318 34370355 34290433 34580489