MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2042
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 281449Z - 281545Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST TODAY WITH
   ANY DEEPER...MOIST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT A SHORT BAND OF TSTMS HAS
   RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG COLD FRONT OVER ERN LAKE ERIE WITH AN
   OBSERVED STORM MOTION OF 230/50-55 KT.  INSPECTION OF MORNING WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE
   OF DEEP AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  WHILE 12Z BUF SOUNDING
   SHOWED RELATIVELY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...COMPARISON TO
   UPSTREAM DTX SOUNDING AND CURRENT TAMDAR DATA SUGGEST THAT
   CONSIDERABLE TROPOSPHERIC COOLING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM.  THIS
   DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO LIKELY BEING AUGMENTED BY WARM LAKE WATER
   TEMPERATURES.  GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...THE
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
   STRONGER STORMS THAT CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG FRONT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/28/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   42487963 43567934 43827798 43637704 42517682 42117780
               42127916 42487963