MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 281814Z - 282045Z
   
   STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
   
   A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX...BUT WILL LIKELY
   SLOW AND THEN STALL BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A VERY
   WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 70S
   F. CONTINUED HEATING WILL LEAD TO FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
   AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   OBSERVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
   A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ALOFT. THIS...COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST
   AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS...SHOULD LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
   FOR  STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE OF 1000-1500
   J/KG. THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
   SUGGEST ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/28/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   29969925 30509951 31099924 31119707 31209513 31299432
               30389402 30189390 29949385 29719380 29489410 29349464
               29209534 29239622 29279707 29569818 29739870 29969925