MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750...
   
   VALID 010031Z - 010200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH 750 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF
   SEVERE HAIL.
   
   A RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. A SUPERCELL ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK /BECKHAM AND
   ROGER MILLS COUNTIES AS OF 0020Z/ MAY CONTINUE TO THRIVE OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO AS IT CROSSES THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...WITH LATEST
   VICI PROFILER DATA INDICATIVE OF AROUND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR. OTHERWISE...A SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP APPEARS TO
   BE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE /REFERENCE 00Z OBSERVED NORMAN AND TOPEKA
   RAOBS/...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED STORMS MAY INCREASE LATE THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT VIA AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT REGIME AND AN EASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   37910006 38679898 38489715 35099845 35420041 37910006