MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0602 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...EXTREME SWRN AR...CENTRAL-NCENTRAL/NERN
   TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752...
   
   VALID 012302Z - 020000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752
   CONTINUES.
   
   22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
   SWWD OUT OF WRN AR/ERN OK INTO NCENTRAL TX...WITH A DRYLINE
   INTERSECTION NEAR FTW. LINE SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE
   SSEWD SAGGING COLD FRONT OVER NCENTRAL TX...WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING
   IS STRONGEST. MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE DRYLINE
   FROM FTW TO JCT...WHERE WEAKER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GREATER
   CROSSING ANGLE BETWEEN THE LINE OF FORCING AND UPPER FLOW/DEEP SHEAR
   VECTORS IS PRESENT. AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   CONTINUES TO EJECT ENE TOWARD THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...SHORT
   TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING S INTO CENTRAL AND ERN TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO LOW LEVEL
   FORCING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD QUASI-LINEAR
   STORM ORGANIZATION. IN THE MEAN TIME...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
   AROUND 40 KT AND MODERATE MLCAPE VALUES /AROUND 1500 J PER KG
   ACCORDING TO SFCOA DATA/ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHORT LIVED
   SUPERCELLS S OF THE COLD FRONT /AS OBSERVED IN RECENT HI-RES RADAR
   DATA/ FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO...POSING A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 10/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   34029710 34039419 30819605 30349950 34029710