MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0837 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753...
   
   VALID 020137Z - 020300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH 753 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z. PRIMARY RISK LIKELY TO
   REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO
   IS POSSIBLE.
   
   CONGLOMERATION OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS
   EAST-SOUTHWARD ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ADVANCING SYNOPTIC COLD
   FRONT. LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DOMINANT WITH THE
   BROADER CONVECTIVE QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
   OVERTAKE LEADING/QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS. NONETHELESS...REGIONAL
   DERIVED WIND DATA AND 00Z SHREVEPORT/LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOBS DO
   SAMPLE A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR WHERE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/FAR NORTHERN LA WITH ANY
   SEMI-SUSTAINED/QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS...GIVEN 200-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
   SRH AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS /70-72 F SFC DEWPOINTS/.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   34889240 34579140 32809168 31719290 31609455 32369505
               33779408 34889240