MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0824 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS AND W-CENTRAL AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 070124Z - 070300Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS OVER CENTRAL MS INTO
   W-CENTRAL AL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONSISTING OF QUASI-DISCRETE MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS AND BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG
   AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CENTRAL
   MS AND AL. THE 00Z OBSERVED JAN SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT
   VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES AND A MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 19.5 G/KG...WHICH
   IS AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO SSELY N OF THE
   WARM FRONT...WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO
   40 KT THROUGH 6 KM NOTED. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
   BRIEF SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY DISPLAY OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF
   LOW LEVEL ROTATION AS THEY EXPERIENCE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF
   100 M2 S-2 LOCATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN
   ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT EXISTS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE VERY
   MOIST AIRMASS AND LARGE MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT...WET MICROBURSTS MAY BE
   POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW DUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO
   STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
   
   ..GARNER.. 10/07/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   32488654 31658706 32249086 32859082 33348908 33248743
               32488654