MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 AM CDT WED OCT 07 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...CNTRL AND SRN VT...WRN MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 071130Z - 071330Z
   
   LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
   MARGINAL AND TOO LIMITED IN DURATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT TO WARRANT A
   WW.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A NARROW LINE OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IS
   MOVING THROUGH ERN NY AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS LINE HAS DEVELOPED
   WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
   TROUGH. THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SWLY 45-60 KT FLOW
   BETWEEN 1-6 KM...AND SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM MAY CONTINUE TO BE
   TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE
   PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. STORMS MAY REMAIN
   AT PEAK INTENSITY AS THEY CROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY.
   HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO NEW
   ENGLAND WHERE COOLER NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING AREAS OF
   RAIN WILL LIKELY SERVE AS IMPEDIMENTS TO A SUSTAINED WIND THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/07/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...
   
   LAT...LON   42627391 44047319 44297254 43057257 41777337 41907438
               42627391