MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WEST TX...SE NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 072235Z - 080000Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN FAR WEST TX AND SHOULD
   EXPAND SLOWLY NWD POSSIBLY REACHING SE NM LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS. A WW
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR
   WEST TX. A MOIST AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR WEST TX WITH LOWER 60S
   F DEWPOINTS WITH THE LATEST RUC SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
   PLACE FROM THE BIG BEND AREA NWD TO ALMOST THE NM STATE-LINE. IN
   ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP IN MIDLAND SHOWS A STRONG DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR COMPONENT BELOW 2 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WEST TX ALSO HAVE
   STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM 40 KT
   NEAR BIG BEND TO OVER 50 KT WEST OF MIDLAND. ALSO...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE VERY STEEP ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS
   WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS GRADUALLY DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS NWD INTO SE NM AND NEWD
   INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA WITH THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE
   LATE EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 10/07/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...
   
   LAT...LON   29000338 28920427 29300468 30090475 30640504 31110524
               31930502 32590429 32770389 32860373 32900292 32570255
               31990257 31310299 30800298 30310256 29470262 29000338