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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS INTO NRN AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 763...764...
VALID 091841Z - 092015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 763...764...CONTINUES.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS NOW
PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREENWOOD MS AREA...AND
COULD MIGRATE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTH OF FLORENCE...BY 21Z.
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ROOTED IN THE WARM AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE LINE APPEARS INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING
INHIBITION...AND PERHAPS INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS ...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC...HAVE
BEEN INDICATIVE THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY DURING THIS
TIME. EVEN SO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR MAY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS STORMS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA.
..KERR.. 10/09/2009
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33788952 34378866 34838790 34958646 34928587 33928551
32998632 32548825 32698946 32808973 33788952
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