MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB...EXTREME NRN KS...NWRN
   MO...SWRN-CENTRAL IA.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 101056Z - 101600Z
   
   OVER NEXT 4-6 HOURS...BAND OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW --
   INITIALLY EVIDENT FROM SWRN NEB PANHANDLE DUE E TO OMA AREA -- IS
   EXPECTED TO:
   1. GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT WITH EMBEDDED/LOCALIZED
   RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...
   2. BEGIN TRANSLATING SWD VERY SLOWLY TOWARD KS BORDER AS ZONE OF
   ELEVATED FRONTAL LIFT LIKEWISE MOVES S...AND
   3. MAINTAIN CLOSE TO ITS PRESENT WIDTH AND ORIENTATION WHILE
   EXPANDING EWD OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL IA...NEAR SEWD
   MOVING RELATIVE MAX IN 800-700 MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS.
   
   CORRIDOR OF MAX UVV IN SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IN
   RUC/ETA-KF PROGGED SOUNDING PROFILES INITIALIZES FAIRLY WELL WITH
   CURRENT POSITION AND ALIGNMENT OF SNOW BAND...AND IS EXPECTED TO
   UNDERGO NET SEWD MOVEMENT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH VERY GRADUAL
   DECREASE IN STRENGTH.  SURFACE FREEZING LINE -- ANALYZED IN ERRATIC
   PATTERN ACROSS SRN IA THEN SMOOTHLY OVER SERN NEB AND W-CENTRAL KS
   AS OF 10Z..SHOULD SHIFT SWD ACROSS KS BEHIND REINFORCING COLD FROPA
   THERE...WHILE UNDERGOING NET SEWD/EWD SHIFT OVER NWRN MO AND IA. 
   INITIALLY WARMER SFC TEMPS BEHIND FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS IA/MO APPEAR
   TO BE RELATED TO VERTICAL MIXING...AND SHOULD BE OFFSET WITH TIME BY
   COMBINATION OF CAA AND PRECIP-RELATED COOLING...ALLOWING SNOW AS
   DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
   ALOFT...EVIDENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/10/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   39949546 39779751 39759932 39880013 39980054 40970082
               41279990 41629584 42189274 41839204 41389227 40449365
               40129468 39949546