MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL GA INTO EXTREME SRN SOUTH CAROLINA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121915Z - 122045Z
   
   SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL WAVES ARE APPARENT WITHIN THE WEST 
   SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
   CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  PERHAPS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
   OF THESE MAY BE CURRENTLY ACCELERATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
   CAROLINAS.  IN ITS WAKE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ADVANCING
   SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
   CAROLINA...UNDERCUTTING DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING IN THE
   WARM AND VERY MOIST TO ITS SOUTH...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL
   WAVE.  WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY... LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW FIELDS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
   WEAKENING...CONFINING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
   ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN THE STABILITY OF THE
   POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY RISK FOR TORNADOES SEEMS CONFINED
   TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND LIKELY
   SHORT-LIVED...WITH THE POSSIBLE LOW PROBABILITY EXCEPTION OF ANY
   CELL ABLE TO PROPAGATE ALONG IT FOR A SUSTAINED TIME PERIOD. 
   OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL SEEM
   TO THE BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SOUTH/EAST OF MACON INTO THE
   SAVANNAH AREA THROUGH 22-23Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/12/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   32538329 32628273 32618176 32348090 32018103 31518132
               31408209 31488331 31908358 32538329