MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SRN AR...NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 131733Z - 131915Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
   
   TRAINING STORMS ACROSS NERN TX...SRN AR...AND NRN LA MAY RESULT IN
   RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR...WHILE LOCALIZED 2 IN/HR RATES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR.
   
   STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID 70S/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SRN MS VALLEY REGION /VALUES AOA 2.0 INCHES PER 12Z OBSERVED
   RAOBS/. LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE
   VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG...WHILE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   ARE RESULTING IN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGH
   PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH
   RESIDES FROM WRN MS SWWD ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA INTO NERN TX. THE
   COMBINATION OF A WEAK S/W TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
   APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...COMBINED WITH 20
   KT SSWLY 850 MB FLOW INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY FAVOR
   CONTINUED STORM GENERATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES WILL
   RESULT IN AN ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TOWARD THE ENE...RESULTING IN A
   PROLONGED PERIOD OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES
   GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
   
   ..GARNER.. 10/13/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
   
   LAT...LON   32759174 32079419 32009535 32399582 33289536 33919365
               34049194 33419132 32759174