MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769...
   
   VALID 151731Z - 151800Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769
   CONTINUES.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A TSTM OVER NERN LA /FRANKLIN AND TENSAS
   PARISHES/ TRACKING ESEWD AT 35-40 KT.  SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY
   MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING ALONG AND S OF THE ONGOING...BUT GRADUALLY
   DIMINISHING MCS IS MAINTAINING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /UP TO 50 KT/
   SUGGESTS A STORM OR TWO MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SWRN/SRN MS.  DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES...OVERALL LIKELIHOOD FOR
   ISOLATED COVERAGE/THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO
   SUGGESTS A NEW WATCH MAY NOT BE WARRANTED.  HOWEVER...LOCAL WFO
   WATCH EXTENSION OF WW 769 IN AREA AND TIME /BEYOND SCHEDULED 18Z
   EXPIRATION/ IS POSSIBLE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/15/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   31489212 32419153 32559092 32519052 32128995 31768965
               31448972 31288994 31349075 31249168 31489212