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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769...
VALID 151731Z - 151800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769
CONTINUES.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A TSTM OVER NERN LA /FRANKLIN AND TENSAS
PARISHES/ TRACKING ESEWD AT 35-40 KT. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING ALONG AND S OF THE ONGOING...BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING MCS IS MAINTAINING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /UP TO 50 KT/
SUGGESTS A STORM OR TWO MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SWRN/SRN MS. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES...OVERALL LIKELIHOOD FOR
ISOLATED COVERAGE/THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO
SUGGESTS A NEW WATCH MAY NOT BE WARRANTED. HOWEVER...LOCAL WFO
WATCH EXTENSION OF WW 769 IN AREA AND TIME /BEYOND SCHEDULED 18Z
EXPIRATION/ IS POSSIBLE.
..PETERS.. 10/15/2009
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...SHV...
LAT...LON 31489212 32419153 32559092 32519052 32128995 31768965
31448972 31288994 31349075 31249168 31489212
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