MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 778...779...
   
   VALID 290840Z - 291015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 778...779...CONTINUES.
   
   THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW
   AREAS.
   
   EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER BRYAN COUNTY
   OK...MOIST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS WW 778 AREA.  BASED ON
   2-HR PRESSURE TENDENCIES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST
   LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT /I.E. WAA/ IS SHIFTING NNEWD TOWARD THE
   OZARK PLATEAU.  HOWEVER...RADAR DATA DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK
   SHOWERS PRESENT FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NWD THROUGH N-CNTRL
   TX...INDICATIVE OF BROAD WAA OCCURRING ALONG 50-60 KT LLJ.  AS
   SUCH...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM REGENERATION...PARTICULARLY AS
   LINEAR SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.  KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
   REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES.
   
   FARTHER W ACROSS WW779...BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH EARLIER
   INTENSIFIED...NOW APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH ANAFRONTAL AIRFLOW
   REGIME.  THIS IS LIKELY BEGIN EXACERBATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   GENERATED BY ONGOING STORMS.  AS OF 0820Z...THE STRONGEST STORMS
   WERE LOCATED OVER WASHITA AND KIOWA COUNTIES AND FARTHER S OVER
   WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES IN NW TX.  THE WILBARGER/BAYLOR COUNTY
   COMPLEX HAS EXHIBITED BOWING PROPERTIES WHILE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
   NEWD AT AROUND 45 KT.  
   
   BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION BOUNDED
   BY I-40...U.S. 287 AND I-35 WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 10-11Z.  HERE...THE STRONGER
   SYNOPTIC-FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MID/UPPER JET STREAK
   LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN COINCIDENT WITH
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/29/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   32249967 32839999 35359881 35989798 35579693 34879560
               33659543 32369608 32219778 32249967