MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...CNTRL/ERN MS AND EXTREME WRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 301522Z - 301645Z
   
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APCHG CDFNT FROM
   CNTRL LA NEWD INTO WRN MS AT LATE MORNING.  15Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
   THE FRONTAL WAVE FORMING WEST OF KLFT THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD INTO
   CNTRL MS BY MID-AFTN AND NWRN AL BY MID-EVENING.  MAIN CORE OF THE
   SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE OH VLY IN TANDEM WITH
   A MID-LVL JETLET.  HOWEVER...A PIECE OF THE LLJ WILL LINGER ALONG/E
   OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW INTO THE AFTN ACROSS ERN LA...ERN MS
   AND WRN AL.  
   
   LLVL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN
   YESTERDAY...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE TOTALLY IRRELEVANT WITH
   0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2.  HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF-NSSL/NMM
   SUGGEST THAT A COUPLE OF CELLS MAY GROW SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
   ROTATE COINCIDENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH LATE AFTN. 
   BUT...GIVEN SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE BUOYANCY...CELL STRENGTH AND
   LONGEVITY WILL BE MARGINAL.  
   
   IN SUMMARY...PARAMETER SPACE WEAKLY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLD CELLS MAY
   EVOLVE INTO BRIEF MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES/DMGG
   WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.  IF CONVECTION INDEED
   DEEPENS AND BECOMES SUSTAINED...A TORNADO WATCH WOULD BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/30/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   30909156 34968951 34568854 33618799 32188840 30888910
               30909156