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Mesoscale Discussion 284
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 190757Z - 191300Z
   
   SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL MT
   BETWEEN 09-12Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD NWD INTO N-CNTRL MT BY
   12-15Z...AND THEN DIMINISH IN INTENSITY TOWARD MID-DAY.
   
   EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING
   NWD ACROSS WY. AS THIS FEATURE ENTERS MT TOWARD 12Z...SHORT TERM
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID LOW TO MIDLEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL
   TAKE PLACE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE OVER CNTRL
   MT...WHERE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE UVV/S
   WILL FAVOR INTENSE ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. 
   
   MEANWHILE...FREEZING LINE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL INITIALLY BE LOCATED
   FROM 30 NNW OF HVR SWD TO LWT TO 45 NNW OF COD. HOWEVER...AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE INTENSIFIES...AND STRONG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE
   REGION...SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
   SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD TOWARD A LINE FROM 65 NW OF GGW SWD TO 15 N OF
   SHR DURING THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME PERIOD. THUS...HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH
   RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE DURING THE
   MORNING...BEGINNING OVER S-CNTRL/CNTRL MT BY 09-12Z AND SPREADING
   NWD INTO N-CNTRL MT BY 12-15Z. 
   
   IN ADDITION...N-NWLY WINDS OVER THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL ARE FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN TO 35 KT DURING THE MORNING...WHICH MAY LEAD TO GUSTY
   SURFACE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY REDUCED
   TO A HALF MILE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/19/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
   
   LAT...LON   48960781 45600774 45110909 45831033 46951064 48971035
               48960781 
   
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Page last modified: March 22, 2012
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