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Mesoscale Discussion Format Change - Severe Potential MDs
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MD 318 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...SWRN AND CNTRL VA...MUCH OF NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 211722Z - 211915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
   THE LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED PULSE-TYPE NATURE OF
   CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW AT THIS TIME.
   
   DISCUSSION...CUMULUS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SE WV
   SWD INTO NWRN NC WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED MAXIMUM SFC HEATING
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER E...MORE SPORADIC DEVELOPMENT OF
   CU WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO EARLY MORNING
   CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL VA AND NC WAS
   SHOWING SIGNS OF DESTABILIZATION AS WELL. ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   SBCAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND EXPECT CNTRL PORTIONS
   OF THE MCD AREA TO RECOVER QUICKLY WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. BY
   MID-AFTERNOON SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES APPROACHING 7 DEG C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND WITH
   COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-14 TO -16 C AT 500 MB PER 12Z
   RAOBS/...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERY
   WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /LESS THAN 10-15 KT BULK SHEAR/ AND LITTLE
   UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THEREFORE...SUB-SEVERE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT WITH SHORTER DURATION PERIODS OF NEAR
   SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 03/21/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...GSP...
   MRX...
   
   LAT...LON   37358195 37808152 38398095 38698047 38997984 38827934
               38447892 37787809 36597727 35597712 35197753 34957791
               34637859 34857957 35428106 36138184 37358195 
   
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Page last modified: March 22, 2012
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