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Mesoscale Discussion 780
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 231550Z - 231745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL HAZARD SHOULD
   DEVELOP AS CONVECTION DEEPENS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. WEAKER
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW RELATIVE TO AREAS NEWD MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   FROM 30 E ZZV NEAR HTS ALONG A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT. A
   DEEPENING CU FIELD WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT FROM ERN KY INTO WRN PA. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
   TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S...MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG GIVEN THE
   EXPECTED MAINTENANCE OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
   HOWEVER...MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT THAT 700 MB WINDS
   WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AT
   PRESENT...OVERALL SETUP WILL MOST LIKELY YIELD A FEW MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37908226 38298240 39048169 39808124 40458105 40918040
               41067943 40957854 40777825 40337834 39527892 38158013
               37738095 37628167 37908226

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Page last modified: May 23, 2013
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