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Mesoscale Discussion 290
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 212225Z - 220100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY AROUND 00Z FROM NWRN TX
   INTO SWRN OK WITH A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH BASED CU IN THE DEEPLY
   MIXED AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND RECENT
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WLY WIND GUSTS. TO THE
   E...A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM SJT TO JUST E OF ABI TO NEAR SPS.
   WHILE A COOL A CLOUDY AIR MASS EXISTS E OF THE DRYLINE...A NARROW
   ZONE OF HEATING WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS HAS RESULTED
   IN A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
   
   AS FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
   INCREASE...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK
   INSTABILITY...WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT VISIBLE
   IMAGERY SHOWS TCU NW OF MWL...WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AN
   ISOLATED HIGH BASED SUPERCELL TO FORM. IF THIS OCCURS...HAIL AROUND
   SEVERE CRITERIA AS WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   FARTHER N INTO OK...SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   EXIST...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME HIGH BASED
   CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
   WILL TEND TO MAXIMIZE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL
   SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE.
   
   ..JEWELL/KERR.. 03/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   32849769 32329797 32059830 32089907 32169920 32489932
               32759928 33189919 33579920 33999933 34449975 34849997
               35129996 35369977 35409945 35399921 35199883 34919841
               34399800 34039775 33449758 32849769 
   
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Page last modified: March 21, 2013
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