STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MLB 30 SSE SRQ
   ...CONT... 10 SSE PFN 15 WNW CAE 10 ENE GSO 35 SSW DCA 15 SE NEL.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER TN
   VALLEY PER WV IMAGERY...WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TODAY AS
   IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES...REACHING ERN CANADA BY
   WEDNESDAY MORNING.  EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD
   FRONT FROM WRN PA SSWWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO WRN
   GA...WITH 50 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT IN WRN NC AND ALSO
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.  AN ONGOING NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION
   ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT HAS MOVED IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
   /FROM VA INTO ERN GA/.  THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH THE FRONT...
   ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AT ABOUT 40 KT THROUGH THE ERN STATES
   THIS MORNING...AND OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND BY MID-AFTERNOON.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z
   OBSERVED SOUNDINGS IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS INDICATE
   CURRENT CONVECTION IS LIKELY BASED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER...
   REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO PENETRATE DOWN TO THE
   SURFACE. 
   
   EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH MODEST SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED
   STORMS THIS MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
   AND VA.  A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO
   REMAIN ABOVE THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON WITH A MINIMAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE
   SURFACE.  A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE
   THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
    
   ..PETERS.. 02/04/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z