STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS
15 ENE AUS BWD 50 WSW SPS 25 NW FSI OKC 35 NNW MLC 15 SE PGO
15 NNE ELD 30 WNW JAN 35 SSE MEI 35 SW TOI 10 NNW ABY 35 W SAV
20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 25 SSE VRB 30 NW FMY.
...GULF COAST...
MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE ANTICYCLONES
DOMINATE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WITH OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SFC LOW WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THEN REEMERGE ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN GULF LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
FL PANHANDLE.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT DUE IN LARGE PART TO WARM ADVECTION MAY AID
ELEVATED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ERN EDGE OF
STEEPER PLUME OF LAPSE RATES ACROSS OK/TX EARLY IN PERIOD. HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z. DOWNSTREAM...GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY NORTH OF SFC FRONT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH
DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE GULF COAST. IT APPEARS
GREATEST FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MOST OF THE PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 02/06/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
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