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Feb-13-2003 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 S LBB 75 NW ABI 40 NNW ABI 25 SW ABI 40 WSW SJT 10 SE P07
   30 ESE MRF 50 SW INK 35 NNE INK 35 S LBB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW IPL
   25 ESE NID 55 NE MER 20 N TPH 45 ENE IGM INW 45 SW GUP 40 SSE GNT
   25 W 4CR 45 ESE 4CR 35 SSE CVS 60 N CDS 15 SSE P28 10 W EMP OJC
   20 W VIH 20 SE POF 45 SSW JBR 30 SSE PBF 25 SW TXK 30 W TYR
   30 ENE TPL 30 NNE SAT 20 SSW HDO 65 W COT.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF SAN WILL
   TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THEN OVER THE SWRN
   U.S. ON THURSDAY. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MEXICO WITH 100+ KT 300MB
   JET STREAK SPREADING EWD OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION FROM LATE
   AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. EVOLVING SRN PLAINS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
   NWD FROM NRN TX/OK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO KS/MO BY EARLY FRIDAY
   AS LEE-SIDE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES FROM SERN CO INTO WRN KS. 
   
   ...WEST TX...
   WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO
   LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN TX AND OK DURING THE
   PERIOD DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THESE
   AREAS. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST
   AXIS OVER THE TRANS PECOS...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE OF 500-1000
   J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   STORM INITIATION WILL EXIST INVOF DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER
   THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE AND SURGES EWD INTO
   INSTABILITY AXIS AFTER 00Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50KT
   WILL FAVOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND GREATER PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL
   FROM A FEW OF THESE STORMS. WHILE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
   SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME THUNDER THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD...SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT FROM HAIL APPEARS LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME...AND WILL
   LIKELY BE CENTERED AROUND 03Z...BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
   ENCOUNTER WANING INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT LESSENS.
    
   ..CARBIN.. 02/13/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
        
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