STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S LBB 75 NW ABI 40 NNW ABI 25 SW ABI 40 WSW SJT 10 SE P07
30 ESE MRF 50 SW INK 35 NNE INK 35 S LBB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW IPL
25 ESE NID 55 NE MER 20 N TPH 45 ENE IGM INW 45 SW GUP 40 SSE GNT
25 W 4CR 45 ESE 4CR 35 SSE CVS 60 N CDS 15 SSE P28 10 W EMP OJC
20 W VIH 20 SE POF 45 SSW JBR 30 SSE PBF 25 SW TXK 30 W TYR
30 ENE TPL 30 NNE SAT 20 SSW HDO 65 W COT.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF SAN WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THEN OVER THE SWRN
U.S. ON THURSDAY. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MEXICO WITH 100+ KT 300MB
JET STREAK SPREADING EWD OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. EVOLVING SRN PLAINS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NWD FROM NRN TX/OK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO KS/MO BY EARLY FRIDAY
AS LEE-SIDE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES FROM SERN CO INTO WRN KS.
...WEST TX...
WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN TX AND OK DURING THE
PERIOD DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST
AXIS OVER THE TRANS PECOS...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM INITIATION WILL EXIST INVOF DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE AND SURGES EWD INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS AFTER 00Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50KT
WILL FAVOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND GREATER PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL
FROM A FEW OF THESE STORMS. WHILE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME THUNDER THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD...SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FROM HAIL APPEARS LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME...AND WILL
LIKELY BE CENTERED AROUND 03Z...BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER WANING INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT LESSENS.
..CARBIN.. 02/13/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
|