STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 SSE CRP 10 S LRD ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 30 WNW JCT 50 NE ABI
   30 SSW MKO 15 ENE TUL 35 NE PNC 20 NNW EMP FLV 50 NNE SZL
   10 SW VIH 35 SSE HRO 40 NNE SHV 40 NNW POE 20 SSW BPT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE YUM
   35 SSE EED 35 W EED 30 NNE DRA 50 WNW P38 45 WNW MLF 55 ENE MLF
   30 NNE PGA 40 WSW GNT 30 SSW DMN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 35 WNW SJT
   45 SW SPS 45 NW MLC 30 W TUL 25 S END 25 W LTS 20 WSW PVW
   25 SSW CVS 40 S LVS 35 N LVS 45 NNW TCC 40 E TCC 30 ENE AMA
   15 SSW ICT 15 WNW MHK 30 ENE BIE 35 SSW DSM 30 ESE OTM 30 WSW PIA
   10 WSW DAY 35 ENE 5I3 40 WNW TRI 30 NE TUP 35 SSE GWO 30 SSE LCH.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS SITUATED FROM THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS SWWD TO NRN MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
   IMAGERY LOOPS DEPICTING SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES ON THE ERN
   FLANK...AND WITHIN THE BASE...OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. THE MOST
   SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/SPEED MAX APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
   THE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO ATTM AND WILL TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH 12Z. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SERN KS WITH A WELL-DEFINED COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE TO NERN NM...AND A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM SERN MO TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE
   SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT SEWD TOWARD THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
   FRONT DROPS SEWD ACROSS NWRN TX.
   
   ...SERN TX...
   WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE
   TO 1000 J/KG/ AS COLDER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD EWD ATOP
   WARM/MOIST AXIS FROM SOUTH TX NWD TO THE RED RIVER. ONLY WEAK
   CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE HAS SO FAR LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
   THIS SITUATION MAY CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS SPEED MAX...NOW CROSSING
   MEXICO...BEGINS TO PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT. 18Z ETA AND LAST 12Z ETAKF SHOWED SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
   MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL TX AFTER 06Z AND THIS TIMING
   SEEMS TO COINCIDE WITH EMERGENCE OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW
   CROSSING MEXICO. PRIMARY THREAT FORM THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LARGE
   HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
   
   ...NRN TX...
   00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH OVER 1500
   J/KG MLCAPE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 45KT. IT IS POSSIBLE
   THAT SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE RELEASED IN THE FORM OF ISOLD
   STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS LATER TONIGHT AS FORCING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
   NUMBER 65 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
   
   ...KS/MO...
   A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER ERN KS OVER THE
   PAST TWO HOURS AND WILL MOVE NEAR/SOUTH OF MKC AREA NEXT HOUR. THIS
   CONVECTION WAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
   WHERE MUCAPE WAS AOB 1000 J/KG. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD
   CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND PLUME OF
   STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA FROM THE SW.
    
   ..CARBIN.. 02/15/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z