STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AST 40 SW RDM
35 S 4LW 35 NW TVL 20 SSE MRY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PGO 15 W FSM
15 NW FYV 30 SE SGF 35 ESE TBN 45 NW CGI 10 SE CGI 25 W DYR
55 SSW JBR 25 ESE LIT 10 SE HOT 15 ESE PGO.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW DMN 50 SE ALM
35 SSE MAF 50 SE BWD 60 SSW TYR 35 SSE SHV 10 ENE POE 20 N BPT
35 SW HOU 15 SSE VCT 30 SSW ALI 45 WNW MFE.
...MID MS VALLEY...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS LARGE SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SPEED MAX OVER AR LIFTING NEWD TOWARD
THE OH VALLEY. DEEP WLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE FORCED A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS FAR AS THE MS VALLEY WHERE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
HOWEVER HAS STABILIZED THIS REGION AND ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING IN BOTH LIGHTNING FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.
...TX...
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FORCED SWD INTO
CENTRAL/ERN TX IN WAKE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAK CONVERGENCE
AND DILUTED SUNSHINE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVE INEFFECTIVE IN
DRIVING DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR WEST TX
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE ACTIVITY.
...PACIFIC COAST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER SPEED MAX IS INCREASING IN
INTENSITY OFF THE NRN CA COAST WHICH IS ENHANCING STRONG SSEWD
MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH. MID LEVEL CAA SHOULD AID IN POST FRONTAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CA INTO SWRN ORE...ESPECIALLY IF
PARTIAL SUNSHINE CAN DEVELOP BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY DURING THE
MID DAY-EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..DARROW.. 02/19/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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