STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 60 E DAG
DRA BCE U28 40 N EGE 4FC 20 W PUB TAD 40 SW CAO 35 ENE TCC
30 SSW AMA PVW 40 W LBB 30 NE ROW 55 ESE ALM 10 WSW ELP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB 50 SSW GNV
...CONT... 10 S 7R4 GGG 35 SSE PGO 25 NNW HOT MEM MSL RMG AHN FAY
25 SSE OAJ.
...S CNTRL/SERN U.S...
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT. STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED TO
SHIFT ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
PRECEDED BY ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WHICH
IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER LOUISIANA/
MISSISSIPPI.
27/00Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODEL PROGS INDICATING ACTIVITY IS BASED
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...ABOVE SHARP NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER.
WITH CAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...AND RELATIVE HIGH OR
RISING WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE
LIMITS APPEARS RATHER LOW AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES
OVERNIGHT.
BENEATH INTENSIFYING MID/UPPER JET...A 50+ KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST...
FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COASTAL
AREAS...WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT
CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO DESTABILIZATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SURFACE
LOW WILL MIGRATE INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF MOBILE BAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY INLAND PROGRESSION OF COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AS SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES MAXIMIZED BENEATH CORE OF LOW-LEVEL
JET...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM APPEARS POSSIBLE AFTER 27/06Z...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO.
...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NOW EXITING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...IS STILL CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL DIMINISH AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES...BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT JET STREAK
DIGGING INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN
NEVADA/SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT.
..KERR.. 02/27/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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