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Mar- 1-2003 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB
   50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 SW PNS 30 NNE PNS 15 N CEW DHN 35 WSW ABY
   20 NE SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIH 20 E TPH
   10 SSW MLF 55 SW PUC 25 ESE CNY 40 N DRO 40 NW 4SL 30 SSE GUP
   25 S SOW 15 SSW PHX 15 SSE TRM EDW 60 NNE BFL BIH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4
   35 NNW GPT 10 W SEM 25 NNE ATL 20 SE PSK 15 NNW DCA 30 NE SBY
   ...CONT... PBI 10 WSW FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW SPS FSI
   35 E FSI 30 NE ADM 15 SW MLC 30 ESE MLC 45 S PGO 25 WSW TXK
   30 NW GGG 10 NNW FTW 35 NW MWL 15 NW SPS.
   
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   STRONG WLYS EXTEND FROM NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES
   INTO ATLANTIC OCEAN. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS
   NRN FL WWD INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE SE OF MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI. VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS
   ERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW
   SPREADING MOISTURE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS NEWD
   ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ...NRN FL/SERN AL/SRN GA...
   
   WITH SURFACE LOW FORECASTED TO DEVELOP NEWD AND INLAND ACROSS SRN
   GA LATER TODAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NRN FL TO NEAR
   GA BORDER DURING AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY
   FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS ACROSS NERN FL THIS
   AM...EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
   SPEED MAX NOW MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS TX APPROACHES.
   
   WITH NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT TO NEAR SRN GA BORDER...BEST
   ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM FL PANHANDLE EWD
   VICINITY NERN FL/GA BORDER. REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORABLE ZONE INTO THIS EVENING AT
   WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WLY AS SPEED MAX 
   MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS SERN STATES AND INTO ATLANTIC.
   
   WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR AND HELICITIES OF
   200-300 J/KG...SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SLIGHT RISK
   AREA WITH PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUING TO BE LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER WITH
   AFTERNOON HEATING IN WARM SECTOR AND FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTING  FURTHER
   N...POTENTIAL  FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
    
    
   ..HALES.. 03/01/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
        
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