STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
NO TSTM AREAS FCST.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SERN AZ/SRN NM PER WV
IMAGERY...WILL BE OVER SWRN TX AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY
DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/SERN STATES. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM FAR SRN FL WWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
OVER SRN FL TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SWD INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES AND EXTENDS WWD TO ERN TX...WITH THE GULF PORTION OF
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...SUPPORTING
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO NRN FL. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION
OVER THE NRN GULF WITH A FEW STRIKES POSSIBLE INLAND OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO
OUTLOOK AS GENERAL THUNDER.
..PETERS.. 03/03/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
|