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Mar- 3-2003 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   NO TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SERN AZ/SRN NM PER WV
   IMAGERY...WILL BE OVER SWRN TX AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY
   DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY/SERN STATES.   SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
   FROM FAR SRN FL WWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT THE
   BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
   OVER SRN FL TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SWD INTO THE GULF
   COAST STATES AND EXTENDS WWD TO ERN TX...WITH THE GULF PORTION OF
   THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER
   THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...SUPPORTING
   PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO NRN FL.  POINT FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION
   OVER THE NRN GULF WITH A FEW STRIKES POSSIBLE INLAND OVER THE FL
   PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE
   EXPECTED COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO
   OUTLOOK AS GENERAL THUNDER.
     
   ..PETERS.. 03/03/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
        
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