STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WNW SEP CSM 25 W IML 25 W MHN 30 SSW ANW 45 ESE BUB 30 SW TOP
45 S PGO 15 N GGG 25 SSW TYR 20 SSE SEP 35 WNW SEP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE TLH
20 WSW MGR 30 ENE MAI 35 W DHN 25 S AUO 35 SE MCN 40 SW CHS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW FMY
45 SSW VRB 10 NE ORL 35 SE GNV 15 SW CTY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE YUM 40 N BLH
25 ENE BFL 55 NE MER 25 W NFL 15 SE EKO 25 N CDC 30 E BCE
40 NE U28 25 NNW RWL 10 NW ISN 25 WNW MOT 65 SW JMS 60 ENE STC
10 E ALO 25 SSW FNB 25 N UMN LIT 50 SE SHV 10 NNW HOU 20 SSE HDO
40 NW DRT 50 W SJT 55 E AMA 30 E DHT 30 W CVS 30 S ROW 70 SW GDP.
...CNTRL/SCNTRL/SWRN OK INTO NCNTRL TX...
DRYLINE SURGED NEWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND SWRN OK...BUT IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN AND MAY MOVE WWD AGAIN THIS EVENING. TSTMS
THAT INITIATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE MOVING NEWD THROUGH SWRN/WRN
OK ATTM...HEADING INTO CNTRL OK WHERE RECENT TSTMS HAVE STABILIZED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MESONET DATA SHOWS EVIDENCE OF SUB-SYNOPTIC
LOW OVER SWRN OK AND LOW LEVEL WIND BACKED AND ACCELERATED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GREATER LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
COMBINATION WITH WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AIDED IN AN ENHANCED TORNADO
THREAT ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX...AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LEFT SPLITS AND DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS CNTRL OK POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THESE TSTMS...AND THE STORMS OVER NCNTRL TX...WILL MOVE
NNEWD INTO SRN/CNTRL OK INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.
...NRN OK NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED FROM CNTRL/NRN OK INTO
CNTRL/NRN KS OVERNIGHT. AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLED THE VERY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THREAT OF HAIL WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO MULTICELL STORMS
WILL BE FAVORED.
...SRN FL...
TRAILING LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN FL ATTM.
EVENING ANALYSIS OF SURFACE/UPPER AIR DEPICTS DEEP LAYER WLY
FLOW...AND THERE COULD BE A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO AS THE STORMS
APPROACH THE PBI-MIA REGIONS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. HAIL COULD ALSO
OCCUR...AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEEP...ON THE
ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM. OTHERWISE...NLDN AND IR IMAGERY SUGGEST
ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ECNTRL GULF OF MX...AND THOSE
MAY MOVE TOWARD PARTS OF SWRN FL LATER TONIGHT. THESE TSTMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
..RACY.. 03/18/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
|