STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSE PNS 55 NW CEW 15 E 0A8 10 W HSV 45 SW BNA 25 N MKL
40 SSW JBR 25 NE HOT 40 NNW TXK 25 NNE PRX 35 SW MLC 35 SW TUL
30 E BVO 55 NW SGF 35 W STL 10 SSW MTO 15 NE BMG LUK 35 WNW JKL
25 SSE LOZ HSS 25 S HKY 40 SW SOP 20 N ILM 40 SE EWN ...CONT...
15 E JAX 45 SE TLH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW FMY
30 ENE SRQ 50 W ORL 35 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 SW PNS MSL 20 WNW UOX
35 ESE MLU 25 NE POE 10 W SHV 15 ESE DAL 65 ESE LBB 25 N CDS
25 W END 40 NE CNU 10 NW P35 LSE 30 NNW GRB 10 SE OSC ...CONT...
BUF 40 WNW IPT 20 N HGR 30 NNW RIC 35 W HSE.
DEEP VORTEX CENTERED OVER OK EXTENDS E-W FROM AR-NM...WILL ROTATE
AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO SWRN MO DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL OK THRU W CENTRAL
TN THEN SEWD INTO AL. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NNEWD
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS EXIT REGION OF 80-
90 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX PUSHES INTO KY AND SWRN OH.
COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED OCCLUDED FRONT THAT REACHED FROM
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN OK EWD THRU SRN MO THEN AS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED SEWD/SWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND WRN
AL. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL AL SEWD THRU SERN GA
IMPEDED BY COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MORNING
ETA MODEL FOCUSES MUCH OF ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL GA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
...KY/TN SWD AND SEWD THRU GA...
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM NRN AL
NWD/NWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. MORNING RAOBS SHOWED 50-60
KT LLJ ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY WITH THERMAL RIDGE THAT REACHED NWD
INTO IN/OH. MODELS DEPICT ONE MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO TN/KY AND WILL WEAKEN AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES
AROUND OVER NERN OK/SWRN MO. A SECOND JET STREAK WILL EXTEND FROM
SRN TX NEWD INTO SERN LA ENHANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
E CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WILL DEVELOP NEAR/S OF THE ATL AREA WHERE THE
SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING/WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS ERN AL AND GA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES FORECAST BY THE ETA TO REACH 2000 J/KG. THIS
COMBINED WITH VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO/FREEZING LEVELS OF 5000 TO
7000 FT SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 80 KT IS ALSO FORECAST WITH A HELICITY
GRADIENT ACROSS NRN GA. SUPERCELLS WITH SOME TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED FROM E CENTRAL AL EWD INTO CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT.
...ERN OK NEWD INTO IL/IN/SWRN OH...
AXIS OF DEFORMATION EXTENDS ENEWD FROM OK INTO IN/OH THIS MORNING.
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO THE SRN PARTS OF IL/IN/OH
WHICH WILL SUPPORT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THRU
EARLY TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE TO WHERE CAPES
WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD.
..MCCARTHY.. 03/19/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
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