STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NW YKM
25 NNE PUW 25 N LVM 35 SE 81V 40 SSW 9V9 25 S FSD 20 N FRM
15 S VOK 30 WSW RFD 35 WSW BRL 10 N CNK 20 N GLD 35 NNW SAF
30 WSW GUP 50 SW P38 65 SE 4LW CEC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BID 25 NNW HYA
...CONT... 40 SSW HOU 55 NW POE 55 S TYS 20 SSW BLF 15 SSW JFK.
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE PAC NW DIGS RAPIDLY ESEWD INTO
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OH VALLEY LIFTS ENEWD
INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SRN BRANCH TROUGH NWRN GULF
COAST CONTINUES EWD TO ERN GULF BY 12Z THU.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY MOVES INTO WRN
KS BY 12Z THU WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NRN GULF SE OF
HOU WILL CONTINUE EWD TO BE OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z THU.
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS VA/NC AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...HOWEVER FULL HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY MID
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL GENERALLY BY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG HOWEVER.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND EVENTS GIVEN THE
STEEP RELATIVELY COOL LAPSE RATES IN THE AREA. ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK ATTM.
...FL...
AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD FL
PENINSULA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES NWD AND MID LEVEL
COOLING SPREADS EWD WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. THE SFC LOW
OVER GULF NOT EXPECTED TO SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
EWD... THEREFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT.
WHILE CAPES GRADUALLY CLIMB THRU THE PERIOD AS SLY WINDS BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS FL...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED FOR SUPPORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ...A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. LIMITED
COVERAGE PRECLUDES UPGRADING TO A SLIGHT.
..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/26/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
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