STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSW MKO 45 SE PGO TXK 35 NNE GGG 30 NE DAL 15 W FTW 20 W SEP
10 NNW ABI 60 S CDS 20 ENE CDS 20 NE CSM 35 N OKC 20 SSW MKO.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SE PBF 40 E MLU 15 NE ESF 20 N POE 40 NNW LFK 20 E ACT
35 WSW TPL 45 N HDO 45 NNE DRT 70 ENE P07 45 ESE LBB 20 NNE AMA
25 ESE EHA 25 NE GCK 10 SE SLN 45 ENE CNU 50 SE HRO 35 SE PBF.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE OAJ 35 N FLO 30 NE CLT 15 SSE LYH 20 NNW DCA 30 W DOV
35 SE DOV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE P07 35 S LBB
35 W PVW LVS 40 W 4SL 25 NNE FLG 55 SSW SGU 10 NW P38 45 E OWY
75 WSW 27U 50 ENE S80 25 NW MSO 55 ESE FCA 45 WSW HVR 60 SE HVR
55 SSW GGW 10 ENE REJ 50 WNW VTN 35 NNW BBW 25 SW BIE 50 SE SZL
60 ESE VIH 45 ENE PAH 35 SW LEX 35 NNW HTS 30 WNW HLG 25 ENE ERI
...CONT... 15 WSW ART 45 WSW SLK 15 SSW SLK 30 S BTV 25 S RUT
10 SE BID.
...SRN PLAINS...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN NV THIS EVENING. THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO NRN/CNTRL TX WILL
RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER SATURDAY EVENING.
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG WRN PARTS OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH W TX.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AROUND 60 WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWWD UNDERNEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY.
THIS PROCESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL
THROUGH NWRN TX. DRYLINE WILL ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS W
TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWWD. CONVERGENCE
SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALONG THE DRYLINE AS THE SELY LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE W. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NWRN
TX SSWWD INTO E CNTRL PARTS OF W TX AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND
DRYLINE CONVERGENCE INCREASES. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP E OF
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E AND SE OF SURFACE
LOW AND NEAR WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF NWRN TX LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP NWD INTO OK AND KS AS LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES
DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT N OF WARM FRONT. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY LATE NIGHT AS DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THAT REGION.
...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN AND AREAS OF CLOUDS. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD THE NERN
U.S.. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINES WITH DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBLE. RISK AREA IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
..DIAL.. 04/05/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
|