STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
   OF ERN OK...CNTRL/SRN AR...SW TN...NRN MS...NRN LA...AND NE TX TO
   THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUA 40 NW MLC TUL 30 NW FYV 45 N LIT MKL
   MSL 25 S CBM JAN 30 N ESF 10 SE GGG DUA.
   
   SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
   TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW PSX NIR HDO 30 E JCT SEP MWL OKC
   PNC CNU CGI 30 NNE BWG TYS 55 WNW AND 40 WNW AHN MCN ABY 30 ESE
   PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W FCA 40 N MLS
   50 SE DGW 40 WSW PUB 25 E 4BL 55 SE EKO 65 ESE BNO 25 WSW GEG
   35 W FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 10 SE CDS
   30 NE DDC 25 WNW GRI 15 SW DSM 30 WSW MIE 25 N SHD 20 ENE WAL.
   
   MODELS INDICATE A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE EASTERN
   PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES
   JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
   AMPLIFIES AROUND 150W.  IN RESPONSE...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
   TO LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS ALREADY
   ROTATING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS SUGGEST
   THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND EASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
   MISSOURI VALLEY BY 07/12Z.  
   
   IN RESPONSE TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN...COLD SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY
   ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
   SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH AREA OF STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
   MIGRATING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
   BY LATE TONIGHT.  EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
   STATES WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH MOIST
   RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG/
   NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY ITSELF PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
   MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ...ARKLATEX INTO EASTERN GULF STATES...
   SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F ALONG/SOUTH OF
   FRONT...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE LIFTED ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE
   IS CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  INSTABILITY AND
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER
   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AND
   WEAKEN...BUT NEW ACTIVITY IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE 
   SOUTHEAST...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX...AND WILL
   LIKELY INTENSIFY AS BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR FRONT DESTABILIZES.
   
   BAND OF STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BASE OF MID/UPPER
   TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WHERE A BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW-
   LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION
   TO VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS
   PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX...BEFORE BETTER THREAT
   DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE
   VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE BORDER BY EARLY THIS
   EVENING.
   
   MODELS SUGGEST INTENSIFYING HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION...AND JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
   ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   ACROSS TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WITH DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS BECOMING PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY
   DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT LIKELY TO
   STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. 
    
   ..KERR/JEWELL.. 04/06/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z