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Apr- 6-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ECNTRL TX...NEWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL LA...EXTREME SERN AR...AND CENTRAL/NRN MS. 
   THE HIGH RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SHV 30 NE SHV
   30 ENE ELD 40 N GLH 45 W UOX 20 WSW TUP CBM 45 NNE MEI 10 SSE MEI
   30 NNE MCB 10 NW ESF 15 NNE LFK 35 N LFK 25 WSW SHV.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK.  THE
   MDT RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW TYR 30 NNE TYR 20 ESE
   PRX 40 SW PGO 10 NW PGO 25 NE PGO 40 WNW HOT 10 WSW HOT 35 SE HOT
   PBF 55 ENE PBF 15 W MEM 10 WSW MKL 45 ESE MKL 20 ESE MSL TCL 50 ESE
   MEI 45 SSW LUL 25 SSW MCB 45 NNW BPT 50 E CLL 15 N CLL 50 N CLL 30
   SW TYR.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 E PSX 10 N VCT 15 SE SAT 30 NW SAT 20 WSW ACT 20 S DAL MLC
   15 NE MKO 35 NNW FYV 10 SW SGF 40 SW TBN 25 NNE UNO 15 NW POF
   15 SW CGI 45 WSW EVV 10 S OWB 50 ENE BWG 45 SSW LOZ 10 ENE TYS
   40 NNW AND 35 WNW AGS 55 SSW AGS 35 NNE MGR 30 ESE PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LWS 25 NW MSO
   35 SSW HVR 30 WSW GGW 40 ESE MLS 40 W BFF 10 SSE LAA 40 SE ALS
   35 NNE CEZ 10 W U24 50 WSW ENV 20 SSW OWY 60 S BKE 30 SSW LWS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DRT 25 ENE BWD
   40 N MWL 15 E FSI 30 ESE GAG 45 SE DDC 45 N RSL 25 W LNK
   25 SSW DSM 15 ENE LAF 15 WSW CMH 35 ESE PKB 10 NNW SSU LYH
   15 NNE RIC 35 NNE ORF.
   
   
   
   ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE FROM
   NERN TX INTO NRN/CNTRL MS...
   
   EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL CONVECTIVE MODES IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT
   ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
   EXTENDS EWD FROM NEAR SHV...INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MS.  THIS
   ZONE OF ENHANCED CONCERN IS PRIMARILY ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
   EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  DEVELOPING MVC HAS EVOLVED FROM
   AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ECNTRL MS...MOVING EWD
   AT ROUGHLY 25KT.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...OUTFLOW HAS FORCED
   A BOUNDARY INTO NRN LA WHICH IS MAGNIFYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF
   DEVELOPING CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGH
   ALONG THIS ZONE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S.
   
   AS LLJ INCREASES OVER MS THIS EVENING...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
   RECOVER TOWARD WRN TN.  RESULTANT TORNADIC THREAT WILL SHIFT NWD
   INTO THIS REGION AFTER DARK.  IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
   HAIL SEEMS A GOOD PROBABILITY WITH STRONGEST SUPERCELLS.
   
   FARTHER WEST...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD
   NEWD AHEAD OF DRY LINE ACROSS NERN TX INTO THE ARKLATX REGION. 
   ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED SOMEWHAT...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
   DAMAGING HAIL APPEAR LIKELY.  ONCE THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO SWRN
   AR...WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR IS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD FORCE
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO ELEVATED MODE.  AS THIS TRANSITION
   OCCURS...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR ENHANCED
   ROTATION/TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG A NARROW AXIS AS CONVECTION
   CROSSES BOUNDARY.  OTHER SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP/EVOLVE SWWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 
   LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH DRY LINE ACTIVITY.
    
   ..DARROW.. 04/06/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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