STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW 4BK 55 S EUG
40 SE SLE 40 NNW DLS 50 E BLI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW GGW 65 E LWT
15 WSW BZN 10 NW IDA 15 NW ENV 50 SSE U31 15 NNE FAT 45 W PRB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE AUS 30 ESE HDO
30 ENE DRT 60 NE P07 20 ENE MAF 35 SE LBB 45 SSW CDS 40 SW SPS
15 WSW FTW 30 SE ACT 40 SE AUS.
...WRN U.S...
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. TODAY AS
SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL
CA...NEWD INTO WRN MT WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN/SATURATE PORTIONS OF
MID-UPPER LEVELS ALONG THIS ZONE. IT APPEARS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
...CENTRAL TX...
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL TX DURING
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE BENIGN LARGE SCALE PATTERN MAY ACTUALLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF TX...PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION BUT MORE
LIKELY DUE TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST INHIBITION WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER-MID
50S...YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT PROVIDE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN
REGION OF INITIATION BUT STRONG DIURNAL HEATING MAY ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..DARROW.. 04/12/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
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