STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 E OJC 30 NNE FNB 45 ESE OMA 25 W MLI 35 NW LAF 15 NNE IND
   15 S SDF 40 SSW BNA 15 NE MSL 40 SW CBM 20 SW GWO 35 S PBF
   30 E FSM 20 E OJC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N 4BK 20 SE PDX
   50 W YKM 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE FCA 50 S CTB 40 SSE GTF
   20 S LVM 15 SSW WEY 45 WNW PIH 40 SSW TWF 60 SSE EKO 30 NW DRA LGB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE SBY 30 S DCA
   10 E ROA 20 WNW HKY 10 SSW AHN AUO 40 SSW SEM LUL 20 WNW HEZ
   30 ENE SHV 35 N TXK 15 NW FYV 10 WNW MKC 25 W BIE 45 S 9V9
   15 SE PIR 30 NNE MBG 20 SSW JMS 30 SSW HIB 20 NNE RHI 15 ENE HTL
   45 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 WNW BUF 25 SSW PSF 25 NE EWB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 45 WNW ORL
   15 W ORL 20 N AGR 15 SE AGR 50 ENE FMY 45 NW MIA MIA.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE TODAY AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND STACKED SURFACE TO UPPER LOWS
   OVER CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS MORNING FILL/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD TO
   THE MID MS VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH...CURRENTLY
   OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN STATES BY 12Z
   THURSDAY.
   
   ...MO/AR/IL/SRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS...
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL KS
   WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWD INTO ERN OK TO NRN TX AND
   THEN SWWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILED
   SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN OK/WRN TX.  IN ADDITION...UPPER 50 F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTEND FROM SERN OK TO SRN AR.  IR SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWS WRN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE KS/MO BORDER SWD TO
   FAR ERN OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
   OVER CENTRAL KS/NRN OK. 
   
   A SWLY 60 KT LLJ CURRENTLY OVER AR PER VADS WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
   MID MS VALLEY BY 18Z AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT.  LOWER 50
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ADVECTED NWD INTO MO TO THE EAST OF THE
   DRY LINE.  CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
   THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SURFACE HEATING ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY
   LINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S...AIDING IN AIR
   MASS DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN
   EXPECTED INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES
   AS INDICATED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS AT SGF/LZK...SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LESS OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
   FORECAST. 
   
   AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES EWD AND A 60 KT WSWLY 500 MB JET MAX
   MOVES OVER SRN MO...INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
   TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM WRN MO
   INTO NWRN AR AROUND 18Z.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
   SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVE EWD INTO
   MO/AR.  WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
   TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE WITH THE
   INITIAL ACTIVITY AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.  MUCAPE
   VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED FROM NERN AR INTO ERN MO/FAR WRN
   IL THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHES THE MID MS
   RIVER VALLEY AROUND 00Z.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS LATER THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS WIND FIELDS/UPPER FORCING
   DECREASE WITH THE FILLING LOW-UPPER LEVEL LOWS PROGGED TO BE OVER
   ERN MO BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS
   OF DAY TIME HEATING.  
     
   ..PETERS.. 04/16/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z